China: Impact of One-child Policy

ABSTRACT

With a population of 1.4 billion, China is the most populous country in the world which is growing by

the minute. One child policy was introduced to curb this problem of overpopulation. This case highlights the successful application of one child policy in the year 1979 in China which only allowed each family one child, if non-adhered, fines were charged, low government assistance was given and employment opportunities were limited or denied. This policy was introduced to ensure that the overpopulation does not outpace economic development or saturate environmental and natural resources causing imbalances in the economy. For this purpose, various government reports and policies, peer reviewed journals and articles have been referred. The policy has estimated to have prevented up to four hundred million births. According to the results, the population growth rate of the nation has dropped significantly. The program received both praise and criticism. China faced many consequences like violation of rights, forced abortions, widespread abandonment, neglecting baby girls and unequal sex ratio. It concludes with China’s future challenges. Even though the One-child policy was substituted with a universal two-child policy which ended in 2015, the legacy of the One-child policy, which for over thirty years has affected the lives of millions of people, remains to be the centre of interest.

INTRODUCTION

Every society or country needs population to grow in order for it to progress further, but

anything in excess definitely poses a threat for the country in the future as wants are unlimited

and resources are scarce (Settles, Sheng, Zang, & Zhao, 2012). In the mid twentieth century,

many countries faced the problem of overpopulation rising at an alarming rate. Therefore,

countries had voluntarily began planning programmes. In 1979, China was faced with the same

problem leading the country to take a lead and introduce a strict family planning policy, namely

the one child policy. Many human rights organizations have strictly criticized this policy for

various reasons. This study of the policy is an attempt to understand its impact on the families

in China. It is an effort to understand one child policy and analyse its success and effect on the

society. Therefore, we describe one child policy, the factors that led to its formulation and

research on impact due to various factors. We also look at the future implications of the policy.

China is officially known as the Peoples Republic of China. It is located in the Asian continent.

It is the world’s most populous country. It is the third largest country by total area with an area

of nine point six lakh square kilometres. The country is governed by the Communist Party of

China ruling twenty-two provinces, five of the regions are autonomous and four of them are

directly controlled municipalities. It also exercises a special administrative power over Macau

and Hong Kong.

China has emerged as a superpower, primarily because of its economy, military and enormous

population (Fairbank & Goldman, 2006). Chinas growth has been at a rate above six per cent,

being one of the fasting budding economies of the world. China has witnessed phases of decline

as well as prosperity over the course of its years. China’s GDP has gone from one fifty billion

in the year 1978 to twelve trillion in the year 2018, according to world Bank. China also stands

second in terms of nominal GDP and its purchasing power parity. China is a booming exporter

and importer. In terms of its defence and army, China has renowned nuclear weapons and a

large defence budget. Rendering to the constitution, “The People's Republic of China is a

socialist state under the people's democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on

the alliance of workers and peasants” (Fairbank & Goldman, 2006). Even though the state of

china is socialist, it openly endorses communism. Hence China is broadly defined as

communist, socialist, corporatist and authoritarian. China has posed weighty restriction in

many aspects such as access to internet, freedom of press and assembly, the right to have

children, formation of organizations freely and freedom of religion. Presently it is described

with terms such as, “people's democratic dictatorship”, “socialism with Chinese

characteristics” and “socialist market economy.”

According to the national census, China recorded a population of about one billion in the year

2010. Approximately sixteen percent of the population ranges fourteen and younger, seventy

percent between fifteen and sixty and thirteen above the age of sixty. China constituted a large

proportion of the world’s poor but currently makes up much of the middle class world

population (Wan, 2014). Although by western standards, China is a middle income country,

due to its rigorous growth, it has pulled around eight hundred million people out of poverty

since 1978. By 2013, only a meagre two percent of the Chinese population lived under the

international standard of the poverty line. China is still on its road to completely eradicate

poverty amidst a vast population. In the current decade, the average unemployment rate has

been four percent. Given these apprehensions about population growth, strict child policies

were implemented.

It was the sporadic and voluntary efforts of Mao Zedong who died in 1976, that China promoted

family planning and the usage of birth control methods along with the founding of Peoples

Republic of China in 1949. In the pragmatic reign of Deng Xiaoping, did the population rise to

an alarming one Billion which led to serious considerations being made to curb this rise. (Wan,

2014) In 1978, the program was voluntary that announced families to have not more than two

children with one being more ideal choice. In 1979, voluntary turned into a strict requirement

and demanded each family of only one child. In 1980, this strict policy spread across the nation

even to all the provinces and was made official by the central government. Following this, the

central committee of the Chinese communist party circulated a letter calling upon all to abide

by the existing family policy, the date of which is cited as the official date of commencement

of the policy.

The purpose of this policy which initiated in the late seventies and early eighties was to limit

the bulk of families in the country to one Child. The country only sought to a policy as strict

and dominating as this to reduce Chinas enormous population. According to this policy,

couples were compulsorily limited to one child each and these set of rules and regulations were

to be strictly adhered to. This policy also sought to alleviate environmental, social and

economic problems associated with the population of the country growing rapidly in densely

populated rural and urban areas (Fairbank & Goldman, 2006). It supported or more appropriately imposed perceptions such as late marriage and late child bearing. An age limit of

twenty-two was required of boys and twenty years for girls to get married. However, there were

exceptions. If a couple gave birth to a baby girl, gave birth to twins or a child of disability, they

were exempted off the policy and allowed to give birth a second time. Couples could also give

birth again if they were the only child of their parents. Minorities were allowed more than two

children.

Urban environments accepted this policy more than rural environments because the majority

of the population consisted of small nuclear families who were willing to agree. The rural

environments were traditionally agrarian with orthodox mind sets. They were extended

families and therefore repelled one child policy. Additionally, application of this policy has

been uneven over time, usually stronger in cities and more light in the country side. If the policy

was obeyed, through various contraceptive methods that were widely available, financial

incentives were provided and opportunities for employment were made open. To those who

did not comply or violated the policy, sanctions were imposed, abortions and sterilizations were

even forced upon (Bongaarts & Greenhalgh, 1985).

In late 2015 only was it announced that the policy was coming to an end early in 2016. The

government officially withdrew the policy in the year 2015 with an attempt to replace one child

policy with two child policy. An estimation since 1979 states that about two hundred to four

hundred million births were prevented because of the policy. Even though the effectiveness of

the policy was challenged, it is proved that generally, populations naturally narrow down as a

society gets wealthier. With life expectancy rising, China saw a decline in birth rate as well as

a reduction in the death rate (Chen, 2005)

LITERATURE REVIEW

The literature on the particular case of China is vast. Many researchers and scholars have

written about the different impacts due to different factors of the one child policy. The literature

review of this paper firstly covers a variety of subjects on population growth and its impact on

development. It further covers the repercussions of the one child policy in different settings.

Out of the reviewed papers, the findings from the most relevant and recent papers have been

selected and talked about in this section. The selected literature also directly leads into our case

study, and the various subjects are put to practical observation when analysing the specifics of

the case.

Thomas R Malthus, in his famous essay on the principle of population, (1789) justly argues

that population growth will slow down inevitably in time, where either a decrease in birth rate

or increase in death rate is the main cause. On a limited scale, migration plays a vital role.

Demographic growth was and is not distributed equally around the globe. It was between 1750

to 1950 that Europe and America experienced an explosion of the population on a minor scale.

Then onwards, this explosion began to be significant and extensive in Africa, Asia and Latin

America. In 1950, Asia already denoted over fifty-five percent of the world population with a

population of one point four billion. By the year 2010, a sixty-percent increase was seen or an

increase to four point two billion. Out of this statistic, more than one point three reside in China,

whereas one point two reside in India. Together they account for a greater of one third of the

population of the world (Malthus, 1789).

Millions in the world today aim to achieve a higher standard of living, and seek to meet the

basic amenities of life such as food, clothing, shelter, education and employment. Currently,

the main hindrance to this can be seen as the rising population. There will be twelve billion

people in seventy years and twenty-five billion people on earth by the year 2070 if the

population tends to grow in the same way. This matter can be successfully resolved by

inventing newer methods of regulating fertility and implementing voluntary family planning

programs on a wide note all the round the world rapidly (The growth of world population:

analysis of the problems and recommendations for research and training, 1963) The main task

in hand is to achieve universal acceptance to plan and control the size of families. An inverse

association was underlined by demographers between economic development and population

growth.

The economic performance of a country is substantially impacted by its demographic trends.

High income countries are characterized by low population growth. This is likely to create

economic and social problems while the development of low income countries is slowed down

by its ever so rising population. A way to solve these population imbalances is international

migration. According to Wesley et al, lower growth in population and restricted migration

contributes to an increased global and national economic inequality, portraying on the

economic analysis of inequality. (2017)

A study from a journal on Chinas one child policy reviews the policy’s impact on population

growth and demographic dividend along with its unanticipated impacts on the aging

population, inequality of gender, values, behaviour and the economy as a whole between the

year 1979 to late 2013 (Ding & Hesketh, 2005). After the world war II, moving into the phase

of recovery, the country was in grave need of manpower to rebuild the country. China at that

point of time, was marked by a substantial increase of birth rate. In other words, a baby boom

was seen. The total fertility rate was soaring around six births per mother. As a result of the

war, the country faced an economic stagnation and an economic isolation which led to the great

famine. The concern was to be able to feed such a population as this. The then policy

encouraged couples on late marriage, longer time intervals between children and finally have

very less number of children. This policy’s impact was mainly and significantly seen on the

urban population where the birth rate fell from five percent to two percent.

According to Nancy Qian (2009), the commencement of the One child policy intensely

increased the selection of the child’s sex in many areas. Parents were now allowed to have a

second child, given the case where the first child was a girl, according to the government of

China. As a result of the relaxation of the policy, families could now have two children. This

saw an increase in the school enrolment of daughters. A correlation is witnessed between

schooling and family size. A large literate in economics supports the fact that parents make a

trade-off between quality and quantity of children (Qian, 2009). The quality of the children

decreases with an increase in family size. On the other hand, child psychologists argue that

with the increase in the number of children, children get the opportunity to teach and learn from

one another. They also encourage the emphasis of social interactions and learning by doing.

Otherwise, there may simply be economies of scale in costs for childcare for items such as

clothes and textbooks such that an additional child lowers the marginal cost of quality for all

children. Therefore, increasing the number of children from one to two had an effect on school

enrolment in rural China.

Barbara et al highlights some of the major trials confronting Chinese families in the twenty

first century as a consequence of this policy. It has been noticed that often social policies and

programs time and again work differently from their proposed goals and implementation.

Policies when overly determined, attributes to changed behaviour and outcomes. To account

for both these outcomes, which were anticipated as well as the ones which were not expected,

the multiple set of variables and relationships are required. Even after thirty years of its

implementation, the one child policy still remains to be controversial (Settles, Sheng, Zang, &

Zhao, 2008). The many problems that flooded from this policy have been forced abortions,

underreported live births, abandonment of infants, children that have run away from

orphanages, killing of the girl child and an imbalanced sex ration among the population of

China.

When it comes to socialization, a family plays a very important role as developing a child’s

intellect and personality depends on it. According to Festini et al, it is reasonable and probably

worried that a policy such as this will produce self-centred, spoiled and selfish children. First

of all, as children grow up siblings have an upper hand as are the ones to tend to exchange their

experiences, be it social or academic. Secondly, children tend to be more conquered by instincts

which are self-seeking, imposing more attention in their individual homes. When first born and

only children are pampered, they tend to be less independent and constantly reliant on their

parents. Other than this, positive attributes can also be pointed out. Single children tend to be

academically superior in performance (Festini & Martino, 2001). According to a study, not

much difference can be noticed when the social skills between single children and children

with siblings are compared. Apparently, these children also grow up to be emotionally secure

and confident due to the attention received, comfortable to extended families, enthusiastic to

group oriented activities and well-adjusted to peers. But it isn’t the mere existence or absence

of a sibling that determines the outcome of a child’s social growth.

Literature tends to understate how much of a test one child policy has been on family results.

Apart from the above mentioned issues, enough care hasn’t been given to the indigenous

population. For example, fertility preferences of a family and socioeconomic conditions of a

region. China appears to be a lot more rigorous as compared with studies on other developing

countries.

Without one child policy, when compared to sixteen different countries, it is stated that China

would have had the current population size anyway (Wang et al, 2012). The main problem is

the debate whether the sixteen different countries are a dependable counterfactual. These are

countries with completely different income levels, infrastructure and cultural differences when

compared to China. Wang et al states that the current proportion of households with one child

is very high and wouldn’t have reached this level without one child policy. If this is the case,

then one child policy must have played some role in curbing population growth (Wang, 2019)

Approaching the overall impact of the Chinese society on children’s growth, the society must

promote more social interactions and community oriented behaviour as a whole as it is the

single children that feel a strong desire to socialize. Children might not have means to channel

their stress and this pressure placed on only children might lead to irrevocable consequences.

At the moment, single-children of today are disadvantaged of similar childhood capabilities

and memories undergone by their parents. We ought to further stress and support the

importance of such programs and trends – if we are to make up for the nonexistence of siblings

in Chinese society.

METHODS AND MATERIAL

This is a case-based research study wherein the impact of one child policy is being tested

through a case study about China, the world’s most populous country. This particular case

study has been chosen to analyse the impact of the OCP in China on factors such as sex ratio,

demographic dividend, population growth and so on. Therefore, the case of China is unique in

nature. The author will be adopting a secondary research approach to this topic, and hence, the

study will be descriptive in nature. Various research papers, secondary published journals,

chapters of books, book reviews, reports, online news articles and reputed website data sources

have been referred to and used throughout the course of this study.

RESULTS

The consequences paved by one child policy was beyond the aim to decrease population

growth. The policy resulted in preventing four hundred million births. The main results are the

reduction of the fertility rate, reduction of the birth rate and the decline in the overall

population. Due to this policy, the Chinese government has estimated a prevention of about

four hundred million births. The skewness has increased towards the males as families

preferred sons over daughters, roughly about three four-percent males over females. Owing to

tradition, boys are always preferred as first-born who inherit the family name, sole owner of

family property, to carry the family forward and take care of the elderly. In 2016, the population

of men was thirty-three million more than the women. Because of this partiality towards sons,

many girl children faced atrocities. They were killed, abandoned and even placed in

orphanages. This has all been the results of the policy with compliance to the incentives

provided when adhered to and strict enforcements of abortion and sterilization. When families

had an additional child, the children were often undocumented as a result of violation of the

policy. These children often grew up to face struggles with respect to receiving an education

or having to find work. Although the number of such children is not known, estimates have

ranged from the hundreds of thousands to several million. This led to the rising population with

a shrinking workforce (Cao, Cumming, & Wang, 2015).

Apart from the smaller workforce, the population is also seen to be aging faster and rapidly.

There is a growing proportion of the elderly population. Now single children carry the burden

of having to take care of their parents and grandparents. This distress arose as a majority of the

senior citizens depend on their children for support after retirement. Now there was a lack of

support. Men outnumbering women is another growing concern as a result of the policy

coupled with cultural preferences for boys and abortion of the girl child. Men find it difficult

to find a wife for themselves now.

As a result of the policy, the generation produced differs on a great extent from the previous

generation, that is, individuals are less pro social and more risk averse. Relaxation of the policy

resulted in families in urban areas to have two children instead of one. Practical steps and

efforts were taken to modify the one child policy. Apart from the earlier exceptions for

minorities or couples to have another child if the first-born was handicapped or a girl child,

rural families were now permitted to have two or three children. The one-child policy was

enforced for most Chinese into the 21st century, but in late 2015 Chinese officials announced

that the program was ending. Beginning in early 2016, all families would be allowed to have

two children.

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

The main objective of the one child policy was to achieve high economic growth by curbing

the population growth. China averted more than 500 million births between 1970 and 2015, a

number which may have reached one billion by 2060. The goal being to keep the total

population at no more than 1.2 billion by 2000 (Wang, 2019). So the success of the policy can

be analysed in terms of economic growth and reduction in population growth that is, in terms

of GDP per capita and Total fertility rate. With the introduction of the policy, China planned

to increase the GDP per capita to a thousand dollars by year 2000 but due to the high rate of

GDP growth, this target was met before 1990 and the GDP per capita of China became eight

thousand dollars in 2011. Hence, from this perspective the policy can be called a successful

one.

Analysing the population in terms of the population rate, when the policy commenced the

population target set by the government was one point two billion by the year 2000 and the

data showed by the census was a population of one point two seven billion. This data did not

differ much although this measure was termed as an under estimate by many demographers.

This data is also suspected to be violated and manipulated. There has been a significant decline

in the fertility rate which is known as the mean number of children per women. The fertility

rate decreased from two point nine in 1979 to one point seven in 2004, which is a result and

consequence of the policy. Out of all the countries around the world, the most dramatic fall in

the fertility rate has been seen that of China in the past thirty-five years. Some argue this

comparison isn’t possible as countries are not equivalent and countries may be more urbanized

than China, therefore the policy being only partially responsible for this decline. The policy

has been criticized with this matter that the policy hasn’t been successful in reducing population

growth, but only succeeded in achieving the desired economic growth. The impact of the policy

can be analysed and discussed on the following points:

Impact on sex ratio: - According to the census of 2010, hundred and eighteen for every hundred

girls was the ratio of sex at birth which is beyond the usual range of hundred and five for every

hundred girls. The census also accounted that males were more than fifty percent of the entire

population. Nevertheless, when in comparison to 1953, the sex ratio of China is more balanced

right now. When the case of gender equality is taken, there is over thirteen boys more for every

hundred girls since the implementation of the one child policy. But the reason for this inequality

cannot be solely blamed on the policy, cultural preferences for sons are also a major reason. It

is also technology that has allowed this bias including ultrasound scan and induced abortions.

Other reasons pointing to the explanation of increasing ratio of sex include missing women,

gender wage gaps and land reforms. The sex ratio imbalance has serious consequences with

respect to marriages, with prospective grooms exceeding the number of prospective brides.

Aging population: - Aging population is one of the substantial penalties of the reduction in

births over more than three decades. Another reason that has further aggravated population

aging is the increase in life expectancy where about five percent were over the age of sixty-

five in 1980. This ratio increased by three percent decades later. Therefore, with income levels

much lower than before, China is aging (Lisa et al, 2014). This combination of low income and

the aging population generates a burden on the government financially. Caring for the old and

seniors is a costly affair which includes medical care, pensions and so on. The is a graver

concern when the burden to care for the old falls on one child. This is a huge responsibility to

be handled alone when this is usually shared between siblings. This calls for an added social

expenditure as well as social care. That is why all of this isn’t possible for the single-child

generation.

Impact on Children: - The one child policy is marked to have an impact on the behaviour of

the one child generation. The new generation will be different in terms of cooperation and

selflessness as an only child tends to be self-centred, selfish and possessive. But practical and

realistic evidence on these differences which are behavioural is meagre.

Another analysis may be conducted by weighing its advantages and disadvantages. The

advantages of this policy would include the benefits of a controlled population. With this China

can now improve resource allocation, conservation and environmental management and

sustainability. Since the introduction of the policy, China’s growth and fiscal position has also

been greatly promoted. China also has enhanced its poverty alleviation strategy, healthcare and

infrastructure. The policy had promised availability of employment therefore, improving

financial discipline, investment and saving decisions. On the contrary, the policy is widely

criticized across the world based on its disadvantages. The policy has placed China in an

unsustainable demographic condition due to the involvement of older generations compared to

fewer youths. Thus creating a population structure of four grandparents, two parents and one

child. This imbalance is followed by serious aftermaths on single children. This policy was

also seen as a violation to human rights due to psychological challenges, imposing nature to

determine the family size and end of second pregnancies, causing medical complications to

health.

Overall the impact and consequences are difficult to determine. On one side we see that the

one child policy has reduced workforce and the burden on the generation to come has increased.

We also see how single children will have to struggle to support their parents and grandparents.

On the other side, in terms of education, the policy has stirred savings and investments. In

2013, When the announcement had come in that the one child policy was to be relaxed with

couples allowed to have two children, the government predicted that this relaxation would be

accompanied by an increase in total birth rate to above one point eight initially, but would

gradually lower to one point seven or one point six in the long run (Yang, 2018). In the long

run, if this relaxation does not have an impact on the population, it will change nothing. The

government views this relaxation will improve the age structure and sex ratio. This will

therefore relieve the stress in the marriage aspect by reversing the phenomenon hopefully. Men

will be able to find women and marry at younger ages. As a result of reduced female bargaining

power, the female labour supply may also increase.

At the moment, the population of China is shrinking as well as aging. Chinese policymakers

are attempting to engineer a baby boom after more than three decades of a Malthusian family

planning regime (Guardian, 2019). The restrictions have all been loosened for married couples

with regard to size of the family where families can now have two children. Chinas fertility

rate stands at one point six per woman compared to two-point seven. But these efforts appear

to be too little too late. Birth rates have fallen and would keep falling as couples decide on not

having children. Education has improved and income levels have increased as women are

standing against the propaganda of the state ad pressure from family. This has also led to

delayed marriages and child births. It is also really hard to change a legacy that has been on for

decades. The people are accustomed to this policy and this would be difficult to change. By

2050 it is predicted that one third of the population of China would be over the age of sixty.

This puts severe strain on the services of the state and the single children who carry the

responsibility of their elderly. The existing concern is with the authorities trying to organize

measures that won’t turn too dominating, as they plan practical family planning techniques in

the coming future. The government stands with the fact that the policy was the right measure

but now it is time to change.

CONCLUSION

In order to achieve high economic growth and curb its rising population, China had introduced

the one child policy in 1979. The policy has been successful in some terms and partially

unsuccessful in other terms. Moreover, the stern implication of this policy has caused an

imbalanced sex ratio, leaving unmarried men, kidnapping and illegal trafficking, increase in

the number of sex workers, increase in the aging population, negative impacts on children and

has faced continuous criticism on the violation of human rights and weighing the undesirable

outcomes of the policy. With the abolition of the policy in 2016, China hoped to reverse the

negative though unintended outcomes of the policy, but the future holds little hope considering

some of these changes such as age old dependency are irreversible.

The Chinese government is aware of the need to balance the people’s right of reproduction

with the national need to limit population growth. The policy has been relaxed with fertility

aspirations that would result in a baby boom and to encourage more births. The massive

socioeconomic change of the last 25 years makes it harder for the government to enforce the

policy. Finally, the evidence of slowing population growth, the high sex ratio, the increasing

number of elderly people, and the risks associated with avoidance of medical care by women

with unapproved pregnancies is what suggested for the relaxation of one child policy.

Presently, China must adopt better strategies for sustainable development, provide quality

reproductive health services and advocate for better family planning methods.

DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

When the literature was weighed, not a lot of scholarship has given light on the welfare and

advantages of China’s one child policy for women. Over the years’ china has gone through

changes in the virtues of its families and the orthodox mind set regarding girl children. For

years, China is a country where sons have been given priority and cherished. Hence singleton

daughters now experience more investment by their parents. Apart from that, women also are

experiencing greater gender equality within the economy. This country has always been

dominated by males from the traditional times. A gap is seen in how the policy indirectly helped

promote women’s role in the society.

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